By Álvaro Peñas and Marzena Kożyczkowska
Last September 17 was the anniversary of the Soviet invasion of Poland. Under the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact, the Soviet Union attacked the Polish army defending itself from the German invasion from behind. Then came the occupation, the Katyń massacre in 1940, a new Soviet betrayal in the face of the Warsaw uprising in August 1944 and the imposition of communism in Poland after the end of the war. That wound, etched in the collective memory, is still alive 86 years later. Today, the images of drones over the Polish sky or the “Zapad” military maneuvers along its border resound with a disturbing echo of the past, because history teaches us an unchanging lesson: Little or nothing has changed in the Kremlin.
Poland is at the epicenter of a war that is not fought only on the battlefields of Ukraine. It is a hybrid war, diffuse and calculated, combining drone attacks, intimidating military maneuvers, propaganda and sabotage. Warsaw knows it: the Kremlin has not given up its imperialist aspirations and, under Vladimir Putin, has returned with force to a despotic and threatening model of politics. The Center for Eastern Studies warns that Moscow continues to use the same methods of Soviet propaganda, now amplified by social networks and digital disinformation. Reality leaves no room for doubt, and the latest Russian drone attacks that violated Polish airspace are tangible proof of that threat. But this threat is not new: it is part of a long history of Russian aggression against the country.
On September 10, Poland woke up to the disturbing news that nineteen Russian drones had penetrated its airspace during the previous night. The reaction was immediate: closing of airports, sending RCB alerts to citizens in the east of the country and the deployment of the Polish Air Force with NATO support (Dutch F-35 fighters, German Patriot air defense systems and an Italian AWACS surveillance aircraft took part in the operation). Some drones penetrated more than 300 kilometers into Polish territory and four were shot down. Can we think that this is an isolated case? Certainly not, this incident is part of a pattern. “It is not about causing mass destruction, so as not to trigger NATO Article 5, but to test our reaction, our capabilities, but also to cause confusion,” said Lt. Col. Maciej Korowaj, who stressed that Moscow redirected part of a massive attack against Ukraine towards Poland, seeking to measure the response time of the allies.
The drones – with a range of between 300 and 600 km – acted as decoys designed to overwhelm defense systems. The episode even had an unfortunate component when a rocket from a Polish F-16, employed to thwart the Russian attack, accidentally landed on a house in Wyryki, damaging its roof. Fortunately, there were no casualties. Russia watches, calculates and records every military and political reaction, and its strategy is very clear. The drone incursion tests NATO’s capabilities, while generating alarm in Polish society and sowing doubts about support for Ukraine. Moreover, in the short term, the Russian pressure may mean a reduction of anti-aircraft weapons shipments to Ukraine, which are necessary to cope with these incursions.
After the drone attacks, the Polish Foreign Ministry summoned Russian diplomat Andrei Ordash, demanding explanations. The Russian response was the usual one: denial and accusations against Kyiv. “The Russian government claims that Russian drones mistakenly violated Polish airspace, while the Russian ambassador to the UN claims that it is physically impossible for Russian drones to reach Poland. Which Russian lie are we to believe?” asked Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski in X. Of course, Russian propaganda blamed Ukraine for wanting to drag Poland into the war and, at the same time, spread versions ridiculing Warsaw’s reaction. Propagandist Vladimir Solovyov claimed that Poland defends Ukraine by sending it weapons, but alone does not have the drone tracking and disposal system, so he suggested that “Warsaw needs to ‘manufacture’ threats to justify its record military spending.” One lie after another. As the expert of the Center for Eastern Studies, Jacek Tarociński, points out, thanks to the long-distance early warning system it was possible to precisely trace the trajectory of drones entering from Ukraine, so it could be established that the drones started their flight from the Russian territory and, in some cases, crossed Belarus. In this country, the Polish monk Grzegorz Gaweł has been arrested and accused of espionage, in a new case of persecution against the Catholic Church which is perceived as a “Western influence” due to its connections with Poland (in November 2023, Father Henryk Akaltovich was sentenced to 11 years in prison on charges of “espionage for Poland and the Vatican”).
Two days later, Russia and Belarus began the Zapad-25 military maneuvers, with the participation of small contingents from countries such as Burkina Faso, Congo, Mali, India and Iran. The operation included simulations of Iskander ballistic missile attacks against Polish territory from Kaliningrad. In response, Poland temporarily closed border crossings with Belarus and deployed soldiers on its eastern border. The war in Ukraine began with the Zapad maneuvers, Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz recalled, “If anyone thinks that the war does not concern him, that attacks in cyberspace or disinformation do not concern him, the night of Tuesday to Wednesday, September 9-10, 2025, showed that everything that neo-imperialist Russia does in attacking Ukraine also very directly affects Poland, the eastern flank of NATO and the whole of Europe.” Poland and its NATO allies launched the Żelazny Obrońca 25 (Iron Defender 25) maneuvers, with more than 30,000 troops, and Lithuania announced the Perkūno Griausmas 2025 (Thunder of Perkūnas 2025) exercise, in with 17,000 troops.
In parallel, Moscow intensified its attacks on Ukraine. Kyiv was targeted by missiles against government buildings, European Union headquarters and even the British Council. The scale was unprecedented, just when Russia is supposedly open to peace negotiations. The contradiction is obvious: how to talk about peace while launching the harshest attacks of the war? The answer seems to lie in the Russian strategy that uses dialogue as a hybrid weapon, seeking to divide allies, gain time and ground. “With Putin there is no room for Western forms of mediation,” warn Polish specialists. And history proves them right: from 1772 to 1939 and until 2025, Russian imperial logic has always been the same. Moreover, Moscow strengthens its alliances in forums such as the SCO and the BRICS, together with China and India, which allows it to reduce the power of sanctions as a tool of international pressure and enables it to continue the war. The danger is that, by reinforcing each other, they legitimize expansionist policies under the excuse of “multipolarity” and “resistance to Western bullying”. The image of three united nuclear powers sends a message: to challenge the international order led by the West.
In case anyone still had any doubts, on September 13 a Russian drone flew over Romanian territory for 50 minutes and, six days later, three Russian MIG-31 fighters violated Estonian airspace for 12 minutes, prompting the intervention of two Italian F-35s to intercept them. In the Baltic countries, as in Poland, Russia wages a multifaceted hybrid war. Border-crossing drones, military maneuvers in Belarus, propaganda that polarizes societies, aerial provocations in the Baltics and hostile diplomacy make up a mosaic of aggressions that seek to wear down European cohesion and test the limits of NATO. The United States and the entire West should understand that former KGB agents only understand force, such as the “peace through strength” promised by Donald Trump, and that they laugh at solemn declarations and hollow words.
Former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis published the following post on X: “Russia escalates, we do nothing; Russia escalates more, we do nothing; Russia escalates even more, we do nothing… guys, I’m starting to think there’s a pattern here.” True, appeasement has not worked while Moscow is betting on fear and internal divisions. For the time being, Poland has requested that NATO urgently establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine to prevent drone incursion into allied countries’ airspace, a request Ukraine made during the first months of the war in 2022. Then, the allies refused because of Russian threats; threats that Dmitry Medvedev, president of the Russian Security Council, has repeated again by stating that a no-fly zone would mean war between NATO and Russia.
On September 23, Polish President Karol Nawrocki addressed the United Nations General Assembly: “We are at the turning point of history, at a time when decisions taken today will have consequences for decades to come… We have to consider the current situation as a battlefield for principles that can decide the future of our civilization. I believe that this is the last moment to take concrete steps.” Noting that for Russia, “entire nations are colonial property,” he said that “we are beginning to experience Russian imperialism again on our lands,” referring to the Russian drone attack, and assured that Poland will always react appropriately and is ready to defend its territory. Speaking on Fox Business channel, Nawrocki said that Poland is suffering a hybrid war from Russia and that they will respond to any aggression that violates their airspace or borders.
The one who was also in favor of shooting down any Russian military aircraft that violates the airspace of NATO member countries, was the US President, Donald Trump, who held a meeting with the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky. Trump has surprised with a post in which he pointed out the serious economic problems of Russia, which he called a “paper tiger” for its military performance, and that Ukraine can win the war and return to its original borders: “With time, patience and the financial support of Europe and, in particular, NATO, the original borders from which this war started are a very feasible option.Why not?” This U-turn by Trump seems motivated by two reasons: On the one hand, weariness with Putin’s cat-and-mouse game, which has no intention of stopping the war, on the other hand, the effective Ukrainian campaign against Russian refineries, which opens an interesting scenario for US hydrocarbon exports. “We will continue to supply NATO with weapons so that NATO can do what it wants with them,” Trump concludes.
For many, especially in countries bordering Russia, the Russian drone incursion over Poland was the straw that broke the camel’s back. A reminder of what is to come if Ukraine is defeated and that the threat is very real, but statements of condemnation are useless without action, because actions speak louder than words. NATO has the opportunity to take the initiative, or wait for the next Russian provocation.
