Dr. Oleksandr Shulga is the director of the Institute for Conflict Studies and Analysis of Russia (IKAR), the only Ukrainian institution that monitors sociological developments in Russia and currently focuses on analysing what is published in Russian media and social networks.
The Levada Center has published a poll in which the majority of Russians bet on negotiation to end the war.
This poll shows what our research showed one or two years ago, especially the one dedicated to the third anniversary of the invasion. We must distinguish formal support for this war from real support. When we asked Russians whether they would support the decision to stop this war tomorrow, 74% answered in the affirmative, and there are only 20% who want to continue to the end. This proportion is virtually unchanged since 2023, the hard core of those who support the war is between 13-18%, and 14-15% are totally against the war. When Putin tells Trump behind closed doors that he needs a victory because Russian patriots would tear him to pieces if he comes back with less than Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporiyia and Kherson, he is lying, because Russian society accepts the current situation as a victory and would be satisfied with the end of the war. Regarding the poll you mention, there is another one in the same sense made by Russian dissidents who are abroad and oppose the Kremlin, and that of the Levada center, which is more respected in Europe, but operates inside Russia, so I don’t think it can be totally trusted, considering that we are talking about a country where you can go to jail for dissenting. Nevertheless, this survey has appeared in the public sphere, so we can think of it as a signal from the Kremlin: we are ready to talk. We have seen that proposition in other sociological research from time to time, in 2023, 2024 and this year, and it is an invitation for further negotiation.
However, after the Alaska meeting, it seems very clear the lack of real intention to negotiate and the intention to delay any meeting, such as the invitation to Zelenski to go to Moscow.
Yes, the fact that they allow the results of this poll to be published and talk about negotiation does not mean that they want to stop the war. They want to present Putin as a constructive leader and always willing to talk, but the problem is that Russia wants to replace negotiation with capitulation. The goal is to achieve military victory by employing diplomatic, propaganda, etc. means. Russia turns practically everything into a weapon, whether it is religion, sport, history or political ideology.
How do Russians view the growing economic problems?
Russians have been feeling the economic problems for some time and the numbers in general statistics indicate that in sectors such as construction, metallurgy or mining, the situation has worsened due to sanctions and war. The economy is the first problem for Russians, who have seen a significant increase in prices. This summer the increase in utility tariffs has reached between 6 and 20% depending on the region. It is rumored that taxes are also going up and, on the other hand, the Russian Central Bank and the Ministry of Economy have tried to balance the situation with credits, but the interest rate is very high, 21%, and they have only been able to lower it to 17%, which is clearly insufficient. You can play with money, but that doesn’t fix the real problems of the economy, to which you have to add the sanctions and that their industry has turned to the military. During this fall, I think there are going to be more financial problems, as also happened in previous years. The Russians are going to feel the costs of the war even more, but they are still hopeful that Trump will give Putin more space and lift sanctions, and that China and India will buy their gas and oil. That’s the problem.
Does the high number of casualties still not cause political damage to Putin?
Yes, Putin will not suffer political damage until he announces a second mobilization wave. Russian society perceives those who sign a contract for money, or to pay debts or escape legal problems, as beneficiaries of this war; they have made a bet, and if they die they are out of luck. However, in the event of a mobilization, the coffins and the wounded will represent a problem for the regime.
There are reports of serious supply problems in the occupied areas and there is even talk of population displacements out of them. What can you tell me about this issue?
It seems that the Russians cannot solve the water problems especially in the Donetsk area, which means that the winter is going to be very hard for its inhabitants. Unfortunately, they live under occupation and have no voice, so this crisis will not affect the Kremlin.
The worst, most inhumane and cruel war crime that the Russians are committing in the occupied areas is the indoctrination and militarization of Ukrainian children. Children are taken to training camps to turn them into soldiers, brainwash them and erase all traces of Ukrainian language and culture; they want these Ukrainian children to hate Ukraine and everything Ukrainian. This already started in 2014 and its scale has increased since the full-scale invasion in 2022. All Russian teachers who are taking part in this are war criminals and should be brought to justice in the same way as those who murder and torture our prisoners of war. They are real monsters.
There is now more talk of peace, but at the same time, Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities have intensified.
In Ukraine, we don’t have high expectations because we can clearly see who we are dealing with, and we see no signs that Russia wants to end this war or negotiate. So I don’t think there is any hope that if we hold out a little longer, the war will end, and I also believe that such thoughts would be detrimental to the stability and resilience of Ukrainian society. In Ukraine, we have bitter experience of dealing with Russia and we know that it will attack us again. The end of this war will only be a brief pause before the next battle.
Of course, one can always harbor irrational expectations, perhaps unspoken expectations, that everything will return to the way it was before, but I think most of society accepts that there will be no going back in terms of security and planning your life. Moreover, Russia is trying to manipulate this, saying that Ukraine is a territory, not a country, where you cannot have a life or children, and that it is best to go somewhere else, such as Poland or Germany, where you can be safe. The only time we will be able to breathe easy will be when Putin dies and Russia undergoes a deep crisis. Although we are under no illusions, his successor will probably be just as bad as he is.
