Karol Nawrocki appeared before his supporters minutes after the closing of the polling stations. At that time, the results of the exit polls had already been announced, in which Rafał Trzaskowski obtained 50.3% against 49.7% for the conservative candidate. While the party of the progressive candidate and mayor of Warsaw celebrated Trzaskowski’s victory with shouts, Nawrocki thanked them for their campaign efforts and pointed out that the result of the polls showed a minimal advantage, so that victory was still within reach. The same was said by the chairman of Law and Justice, Jarosław Kaczyński, who then spoke amid applause and shouts of “the white eagle beats the red-headed crow” and “Karol Nawrocki president of the Poles.” The red-headed crow is a nickname for Donald Tusk. In addition to the allusion to the prime minister’s hair color, the word crow in Polish, ‘kruk’, stood for the martial law rapid response system, employed by the communist regime to suppress opposition and stay in power. Given what has happened in Poland over the past two years, the nickname makes perfect sense.
Once the speeches were over, several leaders of Law and Justice attended the media present, and the truth is that, in spite of the exit polls, the mood was good and an expectant tranquility reigned. “We have to wait, but victory is near”, said smiling former Prime Minister Mateusz Moraviecki. And so it was, shortly after eleven o’clock at night, the cries of “Karol Nawrocki president” resounded loudly again after the announcement of the polling station survey, much more reliable than the exit polls, which showed Nawrocki’s victory with 50.7% against Trzaskowski’s 49.3%. The result came as a cold shower in the headquarters of the progressives: Trzaskowski’s presidency had lasted two hours. The election results gave Nawrocki a ten-point lead over his rival, a gap that narrowed until, in the early hours of the morning, the final tally was published: Karol Nawrocki was the new president of Poland with 50.89% and a difference of 369,505 votes to Rafał Trzaskowski.
Nawrocki won among young voters, in those aged 18-29 he got 53.8% and in those aged 30-39 54%, and in those over 60, 51%. The right-wing vote had been mobilized and Konfederacja voters, instrumental in achieving victory, had followed the recommendations of Sławomir Mentzen or Krzysztof Bosak and supported Karol Nawrocki. Trzaskowski “represents left-wing ideologies such as the LGBTQ agenda and wants to restrict freedom of speech and censor dissenting voices,” Mentzen pointed out a few days before the elections. This support has also been facilitated because Nawrocki was an independent candidate and that has allowed a rapprochement between the two parties. It should be noted that the election of Nawrocki, whose candidacy was supported by Kaczyński, has been a success that has made possible a victory that a few months ago was considered impossible.
For European conservatives, Karol Nawrocki’s victory maintains the balance of power and avoids the definitive fall of Poland in the sphere of Brussels and Berlin. Moreover, after what happened in Romania, which was presented by Macron as a victory “of democracy”, the balance is back on the conservative side. The return of the “populists”, in the words of some media, strengthens the European Conservatives and Reformists Group (ECR), to which Law and Justice belongs, and proves the strength of the union of right-wing and center-right parties, of which Italy is the best example.
For Polish conservatives, Karol Nawrocki’s victory was practically a matter of life and death. “For many, the result of these elections is the difference between freedom and prison,” Jacek Karnowski pointed out at the headquarters of his television channel Wpolsce24, since 70 deputies of Law and Justice are being prosecuted by Donald Tusk’s Prosecutor’s Office. What has been experienced in Poland since his arrival to power has very little to do with the vaunted “rule of law” that Brussels used as an excuse to cut off European funds to the previous government and much to do with the authoritarianism of past times. Undoubtedly, the victory of his candidate would have pushed Tusk into even greater repression, as well as allowing him to pursue all progressive agendas unopposed. Fortunately, that is not going to happen.
The defeat of Tusk, who has asked to submit to a motion of confidence in the Sejm, the Polish parliament, puts him in a weak situation even within his party, where there are already voices calling for a change, and opens the door to a victory of the conservatives in the next general elections. Recovering Poland would be a devastating blow to the federalist plans promoted by the EU and would tilt the balance on the sovereigntist side. Karol Nawrocki’s victory is an example of the importance of collaboration between right-wing forces and may become the architect of a new Poland. The white eagle has defeated the red-headed crow, now it is the turn of the crows in Brussels.
