Sergio López Ruiz runs one of the most popular and interesting Spanish-language channels on geopolitical analysis and military affairs. We spoke about the latest developments in the war in Ukraine and the threat posed by drone warfare.
Your channel is dedicated to international conflicts, but you have focused on Ukraine. Why is that?
I have always taken an interest in various conflicts and military news, and from late 2023 onwards, I decided to focus primarily on Ukraine. Why? Because this war has marked a fundamental shift, and NATO urgently needs to learn all the military lessons that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is teaching us. Several days ago, we learnt of the arrest of several individuals who were apparently planning to use pick-up trucks loaded with explosives against a NATO base. Let’s imagine that, instead, they had been vans carrying equipment to control and guide drones, as Ukraine did to attack Russian strategic bombers; I am sure they would have succeeded in damaging or destroying several US bombers.
The truth is that we are not prepared for the kind of war currently unfolding in Ukraine; a drone war where there is a huge grey area on the front line. We are talking about even the simplest drones monitoring a range of 20–25 kilometers – that is simply staggering.
There are reports that this base was monitored by drones in November 2024. This technology, using very inexpensive means, is capable of undermining a country’s security.
Yes, in the Leipzig attack, attributed to Russian intelligence, there were only two or three drones: one was set to collide with the Ukrainian Antonov aircraft, and another that nearly collided with another commercial aircraft that was about to land. With just a few drones, you can create absolute chaos at a critical piece of infrastructure such as a civilian airport in a NATO country.
Do you think the seriousness of this threat is being adequately explained to the public?
No, because it isn’t being made clear that this is a new situation. When people are told that the Baltic states are under threat from Russia, they still think of a conventional war like the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and don’t believe that could happen. Nowadays, all it takes is drones and a few other resources to cause chaos in a Western country, and that is something Russia is capable of doing. We must learn the lessons from what we are seeing on a daily basis in Ukraine.
This miscommunication is now being used by all the accounts repeating Russian propaganda to ask how Russia can possibly be a threat if it is ‘stuck’ in Ukraine.
In recent weeks, the message that “they are going to send our children to die in Ukraine” has resurfaced; this is the same message that was put forward when there was talk of deploying Western troops in the event of a peace agreement, even though those soldiers would have been stationed far from the front line. Propaganda exploits people’s lack of knowledge to manipulate them, but Russia does not want a nuclear war – because nobody would win – nor a conventional war with NATO – because it would lose. What Putin wants is to cut off aid to Ukraine and divide NATO, and to this end he is carrying out all manner of provocations so that, depending on our response, he can adapt his future strategy. We have seen this with Poland and the Baltic states: first, a violation of airspace by a MiG-31; then there were two; next, a drone crashed; then twenty drones entered the airspace; and finally, a missile struck Poland. They are gauging our reaction, but that does not mean there will be an invasion of Lithuania or Estonia.
What do you think is the most appropriate or consistent European policy in the face of the Russian threat?
The stance taken by the Baltic states, Finland and, generally speaking – apart from certain sectors – Poland. Some because they have experienced communism, and others because they are Russia’s neighbours, but the countries that share a border with Russia know that a dictator like Putin cannot be trusted and that his word is worthless. They also know that prevention is better than cure, which is why they are investing in defence and preparing for the worst-case scenario.
Right now we are seeing the fruits of Operation ‘Vivaldi’, a major success for the Ukrainian army, and a few days ago we saw 250 Russian soldiers who had been captured. Despite this, the narrative in the West remains very negative and attention continues to be paid to those who have been saying since 2022 that Ukraine is defeated. Is Ukraine failing to publicize its victories effectively, or is the disinformation simply too pervasive?
Disinformation, as we know in Spain, is very pervasive, but in this case, the Ukrainians are handling this counter-offensive very well. They are releasing very little information because the operation is still ongoing; this is to ensure the safety of Ukrainian soldiers and to give the Russians as little information as possible. In other instances, when major operations have been announced, this has resulted in Russia mobilising large numbers of reserves. Very few Russian channels have reported on this counter-offensive or on what was happening in this sector of the front line, and they only began discussing it just three weeks ago. In fact, several Russian propagandists have accused official Kremlin channels, such as Rybar, of concealing the situation on the front line.
When Putin met with Kushner and Witkoff, he told them, just as he had the previous year, that the Donbas was on the verge of falling. Is Putin, like the rest of the Russian population, unaware of the real situation on the front line?
I am convinced that Putin is not being kept informed in real time of what is happening on the front line and that much of the information he receives is pure propaganda. There are many examples, such as when he announced the liberation of Kupyansk and, five days later, Zelenskyy turned up there, or more recently, when he said they had captured Sviatohirsk and the commander of the 3rd Azov Corps, Andriy Biletsky, filmed himself in the city center mocking the Russians. The fact is that Sviatohirsk is now about 25 kilometers from the front line. That is why it seems as though Vladimir Putin is living in a parallel reality and that his generals are not informing him of what is actually happening. The Donbas has been falling since 2022, and now Putin says he will take it by the middle of next year. I think he won’t stop until he has conquered it because he has to sell a victory to his people, but to do so he needs a new mobilization.
As well as the mobilization, Putin needs to cut off Western aid to Ukraine, and that would explain his campaign of provocations.
The provocations against NATO would not be taking place if Russia were doing well on the front line, and they are a clear sign that the war is not going as its propaganda would have us believe. I do not see Russia being able to advance beyond the Donbas, though nor do I see Ukraine being able to reach Mariupol. It is a terrible war of attrition for both sides, in which Russia is resorting to the use of cannon fodder and Ukraine is seeking to innovate to compensate for its numerical inferiority. For example, some units of the 3rd Army Corps are using unmanned ground vehicles for 80 per cent of their logistical operations and for 90 per cent of their casualty evacuations, which is an incredible achievement.
The other two major problems facing Ukraine are the shortage of interceptor missiles caused by the war in the Middle East and the increase in drone production by Russia. Ukraine needs to strike the production center at Alabuga, where 80 per cent of Russian drones are manufactured, and I am convinced that they are working on it.
On your account, you often follow US politics. How do you view the Trump administration’s stance towards Russia?
The US Congress has shown time and again that it stands with Ukraine and that this support is bipartisan. I don’t believe Donald Trump is a Russian asset, as some claim, but he is like a spoilt child who changes his mind every day. Ultimately, I believe Trump is aware that Russia is the enemy because it is clear that Putin is helping Iran, and has helped Maduro and other enemies of the United States. A CNN investigation has revealed that as many as 14 Russian satellites flew over the Prince Sultan airbase in Saudi Arabia, 48 hours before an Iranian attack that destroyed a US E-3 aircraft and left ten soldiers injured, two of them seriously. Russia, and China too, are helping Iran.
In the case of Europe, there are US troops in the Baltic states and in Poland, so I am convinced that, in the event of a conflict, these troops would come to the aid of their European allies. However, the main problem with Trump and his special envoys when it comes to peace negotiations is that they believe the issue can be resolved through a business and economic approach. The ‘win-win’ approach, as Kushner put it in Kyiv, does not work when negotiating with Putin because his way of thinking is not Western, and this, to me, is the Trump administration’s biggest mistake.
