No one here wishes to claim that death or war is beautiful or morally desirable. No sensible person can rejoice in the face of violence. However, understanding a historical and geopolitical event means analyzing its underlying motivations. And in the case of the U.S. attack on Iran, the central point is singular: it was an operation that, however harsh, had become right, but above all, necessary.
We would all prefer to live in a world without conflict, where states coexist peacefully. But reality is different. The narrative that our time has been a long period of global peace is, at best, partial. Today there are over 56 conflicts of varying intensity worldwide, directly or indirectly involving more than 90 countries. Even Italy, through alliances and international missions, is not outside this context.
In this complex scenario, international law is often paralyzed. The UN is now blocked by the veto mechanism in the Security Council: on one side the United States, the United Kingdom, and France; on the other Russia and China. The result is that many crucial decisions cannot, and will never be able to be adopted. Hypocrisy must give way to reality.
The Favorable Geopolitical Moment
The American attack came at a particularly delicate moment for Iran. The ayatollah regime was already experiencing a phase of severe internal weakness, probably the most serious since the Islamic Revolution of 1979.
In recent years the country has been swept by widespread protests against the regime, repressed with extreme brutality. To this were added the effects of the recent twelve-day war with Israel and the weakening of the military and terrorist network that Iran supports in the Middle East.
Iran Can Never Have Nuclear Weapons
There is also a central point—indeed “the” central point—that absolutely cannot be ignored: Iran cannot, and must not, become a nuclear power.
The U.S. attacks of June 22, 2025—Operation Midnight Hammer—on Iranian nuclear facilities had the objective of slowing the development of atomic weapons. The MOP “bunker buster” bombs had never been used in combat before and are so heavy they can only be dropped by B-2 bombers, which only the United States possesses.
Not only a demonstration of force, but also of surgical precision, which set back Iranian plans by at least several months.
Tehran has never hidden its nuclear ambitions. On the contrary, after the attack, the reinforcement of underground structures and the continued advancement of the program demonstrated the determination to proceed down that path.
Donald Trump had repeatedly stated that the United States would never allow Iran to acquire atomic weapons. Before proceeding with the final military intervention—Operation Epic Fury—he had attempted the diplomatic route, but negotiations stalled in the face of the intransigence of the regime led by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
At that point the choice was clear: act or accept the risk of a new destabilizing nuclear power in the heart of the Middle East and for the entire world.
A Blow to the Russian War Machine
The attack on Iran also had indirect effects on the conflict in Ukraine. Tehran is in fact one of Russia’s main arms suppliers, particularly of the notorious Shahed-131 and Shahed-136 drones, used by Moscow to strike Ukrainian infrastructure and cities.
Striking Iran also means slowing the production and supply of these deadly killer systems. For Europe, therefore, the American operation indirectly represents a security factor. Reducing the flow of Iranian military technology to Russia means complicating the Kremlin’s strategic plans on the Ukrainian front.
Global Energy Balance and Restraining China
Then there is the economic and geopolitical element of energy.
Iran possesses the world’s second-largest gas reserves and third-largest oil reserves. A potential regime change could reintegrate these resources into Western markets, profoundly altering global energy balances.
The attack also has significant consequences for China, which in recent years has purchased large quantities of Iranian oil at discounted prices. Iran exports approximately 80% of its oil to Beijing, and Beijing imports 30% of its oil from Tehran.
China has already been put in difficulty. Should the regime change, the Chinese economy would suddenly find itself more exposed. Complicating Beijing’s strategic calculations could have effects in other sensitive areas as well, such as the Taiwan Strait.
The Regime’s Brutal Internal Repression
Alongside geopolitical reasons there is also a moral element that cannot be ignored. In recent years, but especially in recent weeks, the Iranian regime has repressed internal protests with extreme violence. The demonstrations that arose after the death of Mahsa Amini showed the world the harshest face of the Islamic Republic.
While official figures speak of “only” 3,117 dead, some estimates are much higher, from over 6,000 to more than 30,000 killed in two days. Trump’s promise to “come to the aid” of the Iranian people could not be limited to rhetoric but had to become testimony to American—if you will, Western—”moral” leadership.
The End of Khamenei and the Psychological Blow to the Regime
The death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei represents a devastating blow to the Iranian power system. He was not simply a political leader: he was the very symbol of the Islamic Republic. Supreme Leader since 1989, President of the Republic from 1981 to 1989, central figure in the 1979 revolution and close collaborator of Khomeini, Khamenei embodied the religious and political authority of the regime.
His demise will not automatically lead to the collapse of the system. A transitional phase will likely open, a sort of “power roulette” within the Iranian elite.
But on the psychological level the blow is enormous. For the Revolutionary Guards and regime supporters, an almost mythological figure has been lost.
The Moment of Choice
History demonstrates that authoritarian regimes often collapse when they seem most solid. With Khamenei’s death and the weakening of the state apparatus, a window of opportunity may open for many Iranians.
Donald Trump stated it clearly: this could be the decisive moment.
According to U.S. sources cited by Fox News, thousands of Kurdish fighters have already launched ground military operations against the Iranian regime. Still fragmentary signals, but ones that indicate a possible shift in internal balances.
A Difficult but Inevitable Choice
The attack on Iran was not an impulsive gesture nor an act of gratuitous aggression. It was the result of years of tensions, failed diplomatic attempts, and an increasingly unstable international context.
War is never the ideal solution. But at certain moments in history it can become an inevitable choice to prevent even greater threats. One need only recall that the policy of appeasement led to Hitler’s rise and the beginning of World War II.
In this case the objective was not to destroy a country, but to stop a dangerous regime before it became even more powerful. And, above all, to open a glimmer of freedom for a people who have lived too long under “the eye of the great Ayatollah (brother).”
